The evolution of extreme temperatures in the Central England temperature record

Abstract

The Central England daily mean temperature record (CET) extends from 1772 to present. An extreme value analysis based on the Generalized Pareto distributions shows that both cold winter and hot summer extremes have evolved differently from their means. The reasons for the trends in extremes occurrence are related to changes in the underlying atmospheric circulation. Of particular interest are the winter extreme cold days. In recent years, around 80% of these occurred on anticyclonic or easterly type days, compared to only 50% at the beginning of the 20th century. This change is related to cooling temperatures on these type days since the 1930s. Such a trend has placed an effective cap on any upward trend in winter cold extremes related to global warming so far.