Survival Prediction of Children Undergoing Hematopoietic Stem Cell Transplantation Using Different Machine Learning Classifiers by Performing Chi-Square Test and Hyperparameter Optimization: A Retrospective Analysis

Abstract

Bone marrow transplant (BMT) is an effective surgical treatment for bone marrow-related disorders. However, several associated risk factors can impair long-term survival after BMT. Machine learning (ML) technologies have been proven useful in survival prediction of BMT receivers along with the influences that limit their resilience. In this study, an efficient classification model predicting the survival of children undergoing BMT is presented using a public dataset. Several supervised ML methods were investigated in this regard with an 80-20 train-test split ratio. To ensure prediction with minimal time and resources, only the top 11 out of the 59 dataset features were considered using Chi-square feature selection method. Furthermore, hyperparameter optimization (HPO) using the grid search cross-validation (GSCV) technique was adopted to increase the accuracy of prediction. Four experiments were conducted utilizing a combination of default and optimized hyperparameters on the original and reduced datasets. Our investigation revealed that the top 11 features of HPO had the same prediction accuracy (94.73%) as the entire dataset with default parameters, however, requiring minimal time and resources. Hence, the proposed approach may aid in the development of a computer-aided diagnostic system with satisfactory accuracy and minimal computation time by utilizing medical data records.