Dual trajectories of short-term and long-term sickness absence and their social- and health-related determinants among women in the public sector

Abstract

Background: Short- and long-term sickness absence (SA) vary in their determinants. We examined short- and long-term SA contemporaneously as two interconnected phenomena to characterize their temporal development, and to identify employees with increasing SA at an early stage. Methods: We extracted 46- to 55-year-old employed women from the Helsinki Health Study occupational cohort during 2000-17 (N 3206) and examined the development of short- (1-14 days) and long-term (>14 days) SA using group-based dual trajectory modelling. In addition, we investigated the associations of social-, work- and health-related factors with trajectory group membership. Results: For short-term SA, we selected a three-group solution: no short-term SA (50%), low frequency short-term SA (40%), and high frequency short-term SA (10%) (7 spells/year). For long-term SA, we also selected three trajectory groups: no long-term SA (65%), low long-term SA (27%), and high longterm SA (8%). No SA in the short-term SA model, indicated a high probability of no SA in the long-term model and vice versa. The developmental pattern was far less certain if participant was assigned to a trajectory of high SA in either one of the models (short- or long-term SA model). Low occupational class and poor health behaviours were associated with the trajectory groups with more SA. Conclusion: SA does not increase with age among most employees. If either SA rate was high, the developmental patterns were heterogenous. Employers attention to health behaviours might aid in reducing both short- and long-term SA.