Mean arterial pressure predicts 48 h clinical deterioration in intermediate-high risk patients with acute pulmonary embolism

Abstract

Aims We assess the prognostic role of mean arterial pressure (MAP) for 48 h clinical deterioration in intermediate-high risk pulmonary embolism (PE) patients after admission. Methods and results A post hoc analysis of intermediate-high-risk PE and intermediate-low-risk PE patients enrolled in the Italian Pulmonary Embolism Registry (IPER) (Trial registry: ClinicalTrials.gov; No.: NCT01604538) was performed. Clinical deterioration within 48 h was defined as patient worsening from a stable to an unstable haemodynamic condition, need of catecholamine infusion, endotracheal intubation, or cardiopulmonary resuscitation. Of 450 intermediate-high risk PE patients (mean age 71.4 ± 13.8 years, 298 males), 40 (8.8%) experienced clinical deterioration within 48 h from admission. Receiver operating characteristic analysis established the optimal cut-off value for MAP, as a predictor of 48 h clinical deterioration, ≤81.5 mmHg [area under curve (AUC) of 0.77 ± 0.3] with sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value, and negative predictive value were 77.5, 95.0, 63.2, and 97.7%, respectively. Multivariate Cox regression analysis showed that independent risk factors for 48 h clinical deterioration were age [hazard ratio (HR): 1.26, 95% confidence interval (CI): 1.19–1.28, P < 0.0001], history of heart failure (HR: 1.76, 95% CI: 1.72–1.81, P < 0.0001), simplified Pulmonary Embolism Severity Index (HR: 1.52, 95% CI: 1.49–1.58, P = 0.001), systemic thrombolysis (HR: 0.54, 95% CI: 0.30–0.65, P < 0.0001), and a MAP of ≤81.5 mmHg at admission (HR: 3.25, 95% CI: 1.89–5.21, P < 0.0001). The deteriorating group had a significantly higher risk of 30-day mortality (HR: 2.61, 95% CI: 2.54–2.66, P < 0.0001) compared with the non-deteriorating group. Conclusion The mean arterial pressure appears to be a useful, bedside, and non-invasive prognostic tool potentially capable of promptly identifying intermediate-high risk PE patients at higher risk of 48 h clinical deterioration.