On the Use of Machine Learning Methods for EV Battery Pack Data Forecast Applied to Reconstructed Dynamic Profiles

Abstract

Featured Application: The proposed methodology can be used to design and validate advanced battery management systems (BMS) for electric vehicles. By combining reconstruction strategies with recurrent neural network forecasting, the approach can reliably estimate the remaining time to depletion (RTD), even when sensor data is missing or corrupted. This contributes to safer vehicle operation, reduces range anxiety for end users, and supports predictive maintenance strategies in real-world mobility applications. Lithium-ion batteries are essential to electric vehicles, so it is crucial to continuously monitor and control their health. However, since today’s battery packs consist of hundreds or thousands of cells, monitoring all of them is challenging. Additionally, the performance of the entire battery pack is often limited by the weakest cell. Therefore, developing effective monitoring techniques that can reliably forecast the remaining time to depletion (RTD) of lithium-ion battery cells is essential for safe and efficient battery management. However, even in robust systems, this data can be lost due to electromagnetic interference, microcontroller malfunction, failed contacts, and other issues. Gaps in voltage measurements compromise the accuracy of data-driven forecasts. This work systematically evaluates how different voltage reconstruction methods affect the performance of recurrent neural network (RNN) forecast models trained to predict RTD through quantile regression. The paper uses experimental battery pack data based on the behavior of an electric vehicle under dynamic driving conditions. Artificial gaps of 500 s were introduced at the beginning, middle, and end of each discharge phase, resulting in over 4300 reconstruction cases. Four reconstruction methods were considered: a zero-order hold (ZOH), an autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) model, a gated recurrent unit (GRU) model, and a hybrid unscented Kalman filter (UKF) model. The results presented here reveal that the UKF model, followed by the GRU model, outperform alternative reconstruction methods. These models minimize signal degradation and provide forecasts similar to the original past data signal, thus achieving the highest coefficient of determination and the lowest error indicators. The reconstructed signals were fed into LSTM and GRU RNNs to estimate RTD, which produced confidence intervals and median values for decision-making purposes.