A Route Choice Model for the Investigation of Drivers’ Willingness to Choose a Flyover Motorway in Greece

Abstract

The constant evolution of many urban areas ultimately reaches a point where the current infrastructure cannot further serve the needs of citizens. In the case of transport networks, congested roads, increased delay, and low level of service are among the indicators of a need for road infrastructure upgrade. Thessaloniki is the second-largest city in Greece with a population of over 1 million inhabitants in its metropolitan area. Currently, a significant share of the city’s traffic demand is served via its ring road, whose capacity is set to be enhanced through the construction of a flyover highway with the simultaneous upgrade of the existing ring road. The current study aims at investigating the key factors determining the final route choice of drivers between the two road axes. To that end, data from a combined revealed and stated preference survey targeting car drivers were collected, which were later exploited as the basis for the development of binary route choice regression and machine learning models. The results reveal that drivers’ choice is affected by criteria such as total travel time, the probability of accident occurrence, and closure time due to accident. The results of this paper could prove beneficial to transport researchers in forecasting drivers’ behavior in terms of route choice and to practitioners during the planning phase of similar infrastructure projects.