Spatiotemporal Variation in Actual Evapotranspiration and the Influencing Factors in Ningxia from 2001 to 2020

Abstract

Surface evapotranspiration (ET) is an important part of the hydrological cycle. Based on the MOD16 ET product and the data collected by meteorological stations, this study investigated, for the first time, the characteristics, variation trend and influencing factors of actual ET in Ningxia from 2001 to 2020 along temporal and spatial scales using the Theil–Sen median trend analysis, Mann–Kendall test and Hurst index, and predicted the future trend of ET. The results revealed a strong correlation between the MOD16 ET product and ET data collected at meteorological stations (r = 0.837, R2 = 0.701). Over the past 20 years, the annual ET in Ningxia showed an overall increasing trend, and the proportion of the increasing area was 96.58%. Quarterly ET varied over time, with the highest value in the third quarter and the lowest value in the second quarter. Annual ET showed a positive correlation with normalized difference vegetation index (NDVI), surface temperature and precipitation but no correlation with relative humidity. Additionally, the Hurst index revealed areas showing a persistent increase in ET, accounting for 84.91% of the total area, indicating that the future trend of ET in Ningxia is consistent with the past trend.