Acinetobacter baumannii complex-caused bloodstream infection in ICU during a 12-year period: Predicting fulminant sepsis by interpretable machine learning

Abstract

Background: Acinetobacter baumannii complex-caused bloodstream infection (ABCBSI) is a potentially fatal infection in intensive care units (ICUs). This study proposed an interpretable machine learning (ML) model to predict ABCBSI fulminant fatality. Methods: A retrospective study of ICU patients with ABCBSI was performed in China from 2009 to 2020. Patients were stratified into two groups: those that suffered from fulminant sepsis and died within 48 h, and those that survived for more than 48 h. The clinical score systems and ML models with Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) were used to develop the prediction models. The ML model was internally validated with five-fold cross-validation, and its performance was assessed using seven typical evaluation indices. The top 20 features ranked by the SHAP scores were also calculated. Results: Among 188 ICU patients with ABCBSI, 53 were assigned to the non-survival group and 135 to the survival group. The XGBoost model exhibited the greatest area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC), which outperformed other models (logistic regression, AUC = 0.914; support vector machine, AUC = 0.895; random forest, AUC = 0.972; and naive Bayesian, AUC = 0.908) and clinical scores (Acute Physiology and Chronic Health Evaluation II (APACHE II), AUC = 0.855; Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), AUC = 0.837). It also had a sensitivity of 0.868, a specificity of 0.970, an accuracy of 0.941, a positive predictive value of 0.920, a negative predictive value of 0.949, and an F1 score of 0.893. As well as identifying the top 12 different important predictors that contribute to early mortality, it also assessed their quantitative contribution and noteworthy thresholds. Conclusion: Based on the XGBoost model, early mortality in ABCBSI is estimated to be more reliable than other models and clinical scores. The 12 most important features with corresponding thresholds were identified and more importantly, the SHAP method can be used to interpret this predictive model and support individual patient treatment strategies.