Future Range Shifts in Major Maize Insect Pests Suggest Their Increasing Impacts on Global Maize Production

Abstract

Maize is one of the three staple grains, and its global demand has risen sharply in recent decades. However, insect pests are causing significant production losses. Despite this, few studies have yet investigated future range shifts in major insect pests affecting maize. Here, we used a unified framework to build 24 multi-algorithm models to forecast their future range shifts under future climate change scenarios (SSP126 and SSP585, representing optimistic and pessimistic scenarios, respectively). Habitat suitability was projected to increase in most regions. Significant range expansions were identified for all of them, with future climate changes being the primary driver for most. High-range overlaps were predominantly observed in the USA, Mexico, and other regions. We also identified species showing the largest ranges and range shifts, suggesting the priority species in our strategies against their impacts on maize. The relative roles of climate and crop availability in the range dynamics of major insect pests affecting maize could be, to a certain extent, determined by whether they are monophagous on crop hosts or not. High-range overlap in key maize-producing regions highlights the substantial threat they pose to global maize production. Therefore, mitigating future climate changes could be a crucial strategy to reduce their impacts on future maize production.