A conceptual framework for estmating the impact of climatic uncertainty and shocks on land use, food production, and poverty in the philippines

Abstract

Wide variations in climatic conditions from prolonged dry season to frequent occurrence of super typhoons have significant impact on the Philippines, especially on rural poor households which depend heavily on agriculture and food production for subsistence and income. This paper provides a research framework that can be used to understand the dynamics between climate change and agriculture. The framework incorporates the effects of climate change on agricultural productivity, as well as the effects of agricultural activities and land use on climate change through the emission of greenhouse gasses. The framework uses three simulation models to analyse the impact of climate change: a global CGE model, a Philippine CGE model, and a Philippine poverty microsimulation model.