Refinement of CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores predict left atrial thrombus or spontaneous echo contrast in nonvalvular atrial fibrillation patients

Abstract

Objective: To investigate the risk factors of left atrial thrombus (LAT)/spontaneous echo contrast (SEC) in patients with nonvalvular atrial fibrillation (AF). Methods: This retrospective study analysed the data from consecutive patients with nonvalvular AF that underwent transoesophageal echocardiography. Logistic regression analysis was performed to identify risk factors of LAT/SEC. Receiver operating characteristic curve analysis was undertaken compare the new scales with CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores. Results: A total of 558 patients with AF were included in the study. LAT/SEC was detected in 137 (24.6%) patients. The independent risk factors of LAT/SEC beyond CHADS2 or CHA2DS2-VASc scores included non-paroxysmal AF and left atrial diameter >37.5 mm. These two variables were added into the CHADS2 or CHA2DS2-VASc score to build new scales. Areas under the curve for the new scales based on CHADS2 and CHA2DS2-VASc scores were significantly higher than the CHADS2 or CHA2DS2-VASc score both in the overall study cohort and in patients at a high risk of thromboembolism. Conclusions: Non-paroxysmal AF and increased left atrial diameter beyond the CHADS2 or CHA2DS2-VASc score were independent risk factors of LAT/SEC and may help to improve the current risk stratification, especially for patients with nonvalvular AF at a high risk of thromboembolism.