The determinants of financialization – a bayesian approach

Abstract

This study considers the determinants of financialization in a sample of 158 countries over the period of 2000-2016. The atheoretical Bayesian model averaging approach was applied in order to identify the macroeconomic determinants of the phenomenon. A broad set of variables was tested without adopting any theoretical perspective. It was revealed that the main determinants of financialization are connected with the real sphere of economy, demographic issues and the new conditions in which the global economy functions. At the same time, factors from the financial and monetary sphere, such as interest rates and CPI, were revealed to be insignificant. The Bayesian model averaging approach could be regarded as a promising method for quantifying and empirically investigating such a complex phenomenon as financialization.