Statistical problems in calibrating radiocarbon dates

Abstract

The most widely-distributed calibration programs are those of Seattle and Groningen. Calibration procedures used in both programs are essentially the same but, as questions have been raised about the validity of the mathematical procedures utilised, we discuss problems in the satistical theory to derive correct expressions of the error limits of calibrated 14C data. The ambiguities which result can be understood in terms of classical and Bayesian approaches to statistical theory. The classical formulas correspond to a uniform prior distribution along the BP axis, the calibration procedure to a uniform prior distribution along the calendar axis. The latter is the correct choice, ie the computer programs for radiocarbon calibration are correct. -K.Clayton