A Two-Phase Ensemble-Based Method for Predicting Learners’ Grade in MOOCs

Abstract

MOOCs are online learning environments which many students use, but the success rate of online learning is low. Machine learning can be used to predict learning success based on how people learn in MOOCs. Predicting the learning performance can promote learning through various methods, such as identifying low-performance students or by grouping students together. Recent machine learning has enabled the development of predictive models, and the ensemble method can assist in reducing the variance and bias errors associated with single-machine learning. This study uses a two-phase classification model with an ensemble technique to predict the learners’ grades. In the first phase, binary classification is used, and the non-majority class is then sent to the second phase, which is multi-class classification. The new features are computed based on the distance from the class’s center. The distance between the data and the center of an overlapping cluster is calculated using silhouette score-based feature selection. Lastly, Bayesian optimization boosts the performance by fine tuning the optimal parameter set. Using data from the HMPC- and the CNPC datasets, the experiment results demonstrate that the proposed design, the two-phase ensemble-based method, outperforms the state-of-the-art machine learning algorithms.