Evaluation of spatiotemporal trends in LULC transformation, forest cover dynamics, and impact on above-ground biomass and carbon storage distribution over the Middle Awash River Basin, Ethiopia

Abstract

The objective of this study is to investigate the temporal variation of forest cover and carbon stock change within the Middle Awash River Basin in Ethiopia, focusing on the years 1995, 2010, and 2023. The study utilized multi-temporal Landsat imagery and Google Earth Engine cloud API platform and employed the Random Forest Algorithm for LULC classification. The above-ground carbon stock in the present study was computed from total forest cover of the basin. The results indicate a significant decline in forest cover within the basin, which decreased from 1,521.88 km2 in 1995 to 1,174.10 km2 in 2010 and further to 825.20 km2 by 2023. Alongside this reduction, total wood volume and dry matter biomass also experienced declines, with wood volume falling from 876.28 to 676.03 m3, and then to 475.14 m3, while dry matter biomass decreased from 376.80 to 290.69 tons, and finally to 204.31 tons. These trends highlight a troubling reduction in carbon stock and an increase in carbon dioxide emissions. Overall, the gradual decline in carbon stocks and the loss of forest cover within the basin highlight the urgent need to implement effective conservation strategies aimed at restoring and safeguarding the remaining forest ecosystems.