A Political-Economy Forecast of the Early 2025 German Federal Elections: Merz Wins but the Grand Coalition Is Back

Abstract

In February 2025, German voters will vote for the fifth time since 1949 in early federal elections. In 1972 and 2005, the minority positions of Willy Brandt and Gerhard Schröder, respectively, in the Bundestag led to new elections. In 1990, the elections were triggered by reunification and the fall of the Berlin Wall. In 1983, the early elections were the result of a change of alliance by the Free Democratic Party (FDP). It is impossible to draw a general rule on the effect of a dissolution on the electoral score of the outgoing chancellor’s party because the incumbents were reelected only two times out of four. In 2024, the departure of the FDP due to disagreement on economic policy, among other issues, ended the “tricolor” or “traffic-light” Social Democratic Party (SPD)–Greens–FDP coalition. For forecasters, these elections represent a challenge not only because of their unexpected nature but also due to multiple parties in the German political landscape.