Flooding in delta areas under changing climate: Response of design flood level to non-stationarity in both inflow floods and high tides in South China

Abstract

Climate change has led to non-stationarity in recorded floods all over the world. Although previous studies havewidely discussed the design error caused by non-stationarity,most of themexplored basins with closed catchment areas. The response of flood level to nonstationary inflow floods and high tidal levels in deltas with a dense river network has hardly been mentioned. Delta areas are extremely vulnerable to floods. To establish reliable standards for flood protection in delta areas, it is crucial to investigate the response of flood level to nonstationary inflow floods and high tidal levels. Pearl River Delta (PRD), the largest delta in South China, was selected as the study area. A theoretical framework was developed to quantify the response of flood level to nonstationary inflow floods and the tidal level. When the non-stationarity was ignored, error up to 18% was found in 100-year design inflow floods and up to 14% in 100-year design tidal level. Meanwhile, flood level in areas that were ≤22 kmaway fromthe outlets mainly responded to the nonstationary tidal level, and that ≥45 km to the nonstationary inflow floods. This study will support research on the non-stationarity of floods in delta areas.