The development of Articulated Weather Generator model and its application in simulating future climate variability

Abstract

Major areas over global tropics are vulnerable to the effects of climate change, particularly due to the high population and wide agricultural areas. The impacts of climate change have been predicted to affect higher number of hydrometeorological disasters. Over some areas, it is predicted to generate severe droughts and floods. In relation to the above issue, software called 'Articulated Weather Generator for Seasonal Climate Prediction' (AWGenSCP) has been developed to simulate the daily weather condition for the leading 6-8 months. This paper is intended to briefly explain the internal structure of the AWGenSCP algorithms. Basically, the program is a statistical medium range prediction system which is developed based on markov chain models. In addition to the general model, an articulation scheme was developed and implemented in the systems by utilizing General Circulation Model (GCM) output. This provides ability in simulating the following next seasonal condition, particularly in term of precipitation and temperature. A sample validation of the model is presented in the paper to show the model performance.