Vineyard acreage simulations in consideration of climatic changes affecting Rhineland-Palatinate (RLP)

Abstract

An interdisciplinary research project has determined the predictable potential areas suitable for vineyard use in Rhineland-Palatinate by means of the application of the latest available data and in consideration of climatic changes. The objective was to identify the maximum acreage potential with suitability for viniculture in Rhineland-Palatinate as a theoretical high-case scenario for liberalisation. For this purpose an acreage simulation model was developed and validated to capture and consolidate climate data, simulation runs of regional climate models, geodata, the automated land property map and actual measuring data on frost damage. Full account was taken of anthropogenic, climatic and pedological selection criteria. Finally a GIS-based data blending with the suitable areas yielded the potential acreage for viniculture in Rhineland-Palatinate. The model estimates an additional acreage potential with suitability for viniculture of 335,000 acres (135,000 ha) in Rhineland-Palatinate. The analyses further underline the potential for state-of-the art risk management and data based managerial decision making to counter climate induced challenges.