Dois Lulas: A geografia eleitoral da reeleição (explorando conceitos, métodos e técnicas de análise geoespacial)

Abstract

The voting of Lula in 2006 excited hypotheses on the repercussion of the public politics of the first mandate in the electoral results. The social programs of direct transference of income, in special the "Bolsa Família", had been associates to the great growth of its voting in the cities poor of the north and northeast. We use concepts and methods of modern electoral geography to inquire which the participation of the "Bolsa Família" in this geographic change. The results show a new standard in the space distribution of the votes of Lula, confirming that he still receives the support from its previous bases, but disclose that the regional blocks of cities of high voting in 2002 had lost the cohesion in 2006, becoming more vulnerable. The results confirm the participation of the "Bolsa Família" on the local income was a determinative one of the new contour of the electoral-geographic basis, and the factor of big weight in the explanation of the municipal voting.