Bayesian belief network model for quantifying the delay risk of marine construction projects in developing countries

Abstract

The majority of international trade in goods is carried by maritime transport with higher volume for developing countries. Therefore, considering the enormous contribution of marine construction projects to economic growth, they have become one of the most crucial construction types in many countries. For this reason, the completion of these projects on time has critical importance on the local economy. However, marine construction poses serious risks compared to other construction works, resulting in possible delays since they have significant differences in design and construction. As a result, delay factors identified for different construction projects cannot be transferred directly to marine projects. This study identifies significant delay factors encountered specific to marine construction projects, a crucial gap in the literature. Subsequently, their relationships are examined and approved by experts. We also proposed a Bayesian Belief Network predictive model for estimating schedule delays in the marine project, carried out by a case study. The results show that the delay duration can be predicted using the proposed model before the marine project starts. Also, the identification of dependencies between the delay factors has practical advantages. Practitioners could define the cause-effect relations and prevent delays by focusing on the origins of the delay factors unique to developing countries. Keywords Marine construction Delay factors Schedule risk Bayesian belief network