Spatio-temporal evolution of stroke mortality in Minas Gerais, Brazil, 1980-2021

Abstract

Objective: To analyze spatio-temporal evolution of stroke mortality in Minas Gerais state, Brazil, 1980-2021. Methods: Ecological study with aggregated data by micro-region. Segmented linear regression was used for trend analysis; maps with rates per five-year period and scan statistics were used for spatial analysis. Results: There were 392,521 stroke-related deaths (rate of 52.6/100,000-year). All rates (crude, adjusted, by age group) showed a decreasing trend, less so in the crude rate (Annual Percent Change [APC] =-0.70) and a faster decrease in the 20-39 age group (APC =-4.48). A high-rate cluster was identified in the southern region (1980-1999; Relative Risk [RR] = 2.06), and a low-rate cluster in the northwest (2008-2021; RR = 0.59). The most significant decrease occurred in the south (APC =-3.64). Conclusion: Stroke mortality showed a decreasing trend. Clusters and areas with higher rates identified in the northeast in recent years require attention by service managers.