Runoff of Russian Rivers under Current and Projected Climate Change: a Review 2. Climate Change Impact on the Water Regime of Russian Rivers in the XXI Century

Abstract

Abstract: The present overview is the second part of the article “Runoff of Russian Rivers Under Current and Projected Climate Change: A Review,” which focuses on modern assessment of possible changes in the runoff characteristics of Russian rivers in the XXI century under projected global climate change. The article considers two assessment groups: based on (1) climate models and (2) hydrological models, using data of climate model simulations. The review mainly presents works that have been published over the last 7−8 years, since the release of the previous IPCC Assessment Report and the National Assessment Report of Roshydromet. It is noted that, in recent years, there has been a shift regarding the methodology of assessment of hydrological consequences of projected climate change—from simulations based on climate models to simulations based on regional hydrological models that allow one to simulate characteristics of the water regime of rivers over a historical period more accurately and to assess their possible changes in the future with lower uncertainty than climate models.