Automatic detection of cyber-recruitment by violent extremists

Abstract

Growing use of the Internet as a major means of communication has led to the formation of cyber-communities, which have become increasingly appealing to terrorist groups due to the unregulated nature of Internet communication. Online communities enable violent extremists to increase recruitment by allowing them to build personal relationships with a worldwide audience capable of accessing uncensored content. This article presents methods for identifying the recruitment activities of violent groups within extremist socialmedia websites. Specifically, these methods apply known techniques within supervised learning and natural language processing to the untested task of automatically identifying forum posts intended to recruit new violent extremist members. We used data from the western jihadist website Ansar AlJihad Network, which was compiled by the University of Arizona’s Dark Web Project.Multiple judgesmanually annotated a sample of these data,marking 192 randomly sampled posts as recruiting (YES) or non-recruiting (NO). We observed significant agreement between the judges’ labels; Cohen’s κ = (0.5, 0.9) at p = 0.01. We tested the feasibility of using naive Bayes models, logistic regression, classification trees, boosting, and support vector machines (SVM) to classify the forum posts. Evaluation with receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curves shows that our SVM classifier achieves an 89% area under the curve (AUC), a significant improvement over the 63% AUC performance achieved by our simplest naive Bayes model (Tukey’s test at p = 0.05). To our knowledge, this is the first result reported on this task, and our analysis indicates that automatic detection of online terrorist recruitment is a feasible task. We also identify a number of important areas of future work including classifying non-English posts and measuring how recruitment posts and current events change membership numbers over time