A Mid-Term Forecast of Maximum Demand for Electricity in Poland

Abstract

Forecasting of demand for electricity plays an important role in planning of seasonal operations and expansion of power facilities. Power plants must ensure the continuity of supply of energy, without producing the excess due to problems associated with its storage, and at the same time they must be prepared for increased demand e.g. during the periods of cold weather. These factors make that energy companies need accurate forecasts, which in the best way will help plan all the processes associated with this activity. In the article, based on data from the years 2002-2015, the medium-term forecast of electricity demand in Poland until the end of 2017 has been presented. Forecasts have been determined using the exponential smoothing Winters and SARIMA models, and their results have been compared with each other and the months, when a rise and a fall for energy demand is predicted, have been quoted.