Forecasting the Fisheries Production in Pakistan for the Year 2017-2026, using Box-Jenkin’s Methodology

Abstract

Fisheries play a key role for national income and a source of food in Pakistan. Therefore, forecasting the production of fish is important for better production and for planning of fish export. Objective of this research is to propose suitable Autoregressive Integrated Moving Average (ARIMA) model for forecasting the production of fisheries, using Box-Jenkins’s (1976) methodology. Secondary data, “50 years of Pakistan: volume-iii (1947-1997)” published by Pakistan Bureau of Statistics (PBS) and World Development Indicators World Bank (2016) from the year 1947-2016 was used. After comparing all possible ARIMA model diagnostically, ARIMA (2, 1, 3) is the most parsimonious model with less forecast error. Forecast values for the fisheries production from 633.974 to 720.196 tons for the year 2017-2026 shows a significant increase in the fisheries production. The proposed ARIMA (2,1,3) model for forecasting is helpful for fish producers, researchers, business men, and planning their resources as well as decision making regarding the export and production of fisheries in Pakistan.