Trans-Tasman Transmission of Government Spending Shocks

Abstract

This paper investigates the international transmission of fiscal shocks between two closely-linked, open economies. We estimate impulse response functions using a semi-structural vector auto regressive (VAR) model and quarterly data from Australia and New Zealand for the period 1973:3-2008:4. We compare our empirical results with impulse response functions from a calibrated two-country international real business cycle model with habit formation and adjustment costs to investment. We show that a positive shock to Australian government consumption leads to an increase in Australian output initially and then to a decline in the medium term, while the New Zealand output is negatively affected both in the short and medium term. This result is in line with the recent literature that reports beggar-thy-neighbour effect of positive government spending shocks. © 2012 The Authors. Australian Economic Papers © 2012 Blackwell Publishing Ltd/University of Adelaide and Flinders University.