Spatiotemporal Characterization of Instability Indices Associated with Thunderstorms in Mexico

Abstract

Thunderstorms are known to have the potential to cause damage to the population. In Mexico, these weather events can bring threats such as lightning, hail, damaging winds, and even tornadoes. Various parameters and indices have been developed for mid-latitude regions to improve forecasting and reduce the potential damage from thunderstorms; however, they do not consider the specific conditions of tropical and subtropical environments. This research used a comprehensive set of thunderstorm reports and the proximity-sounding approach using ERA5 reanalysis data to examine five important instability indices commonly used for thunderstorm forecasting regarding their spatial and temporal characteristics. The results reveal significant variations in the values of the instability indices during thunderstorm events associated with different atmospheric systems in both the high-activity and low-activity seasons. The above suggests that no single index can reliably predict thunderstorms throughout Mexico and during all seasons. Analyses provide forecasters with a more comprehensive understanding of the various atmospheric conditions under which thunderstorms develop in the country, which can lead to more accurate forecasting and better disaster risk management for these natural phenomena.