Decoding School Mass Shooter Manifestos to Predict Behavior: A Theory Based Qualitative Study

Abstract

This article seeks to apply the theory of planned behavior (TPB) to understand and address school shootings that involve examining the content of shooter manifestos as a crucial component. The frequency and severity of school shootings raises questions about the safety of students, teachers, and staff within educational institutions. This study suggests that the TPB can support the analysis of verbal forms of school shooter manifestos uploaded to social media. TPB may be used as a tool to understand and prevent violence indicative of a school shooter’s attitude to perform a behavior; their subjective norms; their perceived behavioral control; their behavioral intentions as expressed in the manifestos to predict and deter the manifestation of the behavior. In addition to studying the utility of TPB, thematic analysis reveals a complex interplay of TPB and psychological, social, and existential factors driving individuals toward violent behavior that also need consideration. The three (3) themes are—sense of alienation and nihilism, societal rejection and quest for validation, and perceived ease and accessibility of violent behavior. Implications for professional practice include threat prevention practitioners and mental health professionals to develop methods such as cognitive-behavioral strategies to challenge harmful beliefs by applying TPB in real-time which may eventually lead to earlier threat detection to mitigate massive loss of life.