A intermodalidade no transporte de etanol Brasileiro: Aplicação de um modelo de equilíbrio parcial

Abstract

The search for renewable energy sources has increased the world demand for ethanol. Brazil is the second largest producer, but the costs to transport this production are increasing. The aim of this paper is to analyze alternatives to transport ethanol in relation to the current logistics conditions in Brazil. To perform this, it is proposed to apply a partial equilibrium model in the form of a Mixed Complementarity Problem (PCM). Three scenarios were evaluated: the first represents the current perspective, road and railroad routes are practiced. In Scenario 2, a 15% reduction in the value of rail freight was estimated, and scenario 3 includes new pipeline projects underway in the country. Scenario 3 presented the best commercialization volumes with a 0.20% increase in relation to the baseline scenario and an increase in foreign exchange of US$ 27 million, indicating that road projects that prioritize intermodality, mainly through pipelines, imply reductions in transportation costs and an improvement in efficiency of the logistic system. As a future proposal, it is suggested to include the US subsidy for ethanol, since such a parameter could alter Brazilian competitiveness.