Geographical spread of influenza incidence in Spain during the 2009 A(H1N1) pandemic wave and the two succeeding influenza seasons

Abstract

The aim of this study was to monitor the spatio-temporal spread of influenza incidence in Spain during the 2009 pandemic and the following two influenza seasons 2010-2011 and 2011-2012 using a Bayesian Poisson mixed regression model; and implement this model of geographical analysis in the Spanish Influenza Surveillance System to obtain maps of influenza incidence for every week. In the pandemic wave the maps showed influenza activity spreading from west to east. The 2010-2011 influenza epidemic wave plotted a north-west/south-east pattern of spread. During the 2011-2012 season the spread of influenza was geographically heterogeneous. The most important source of variability in the model is the temporal term. The model of spatio-temporal spread of influenza incidence is a supplementary tool of influenza surveillance in Spain.