Rapid grounding line migration induced by internal ice stream variability

Abstract

Observations indicate that the grounding line position of West Antarctica is sensitive to both forced and unforced ice stream variabilities. This study endeavors to characterize and understand unforced ice stream variability and associated grounding line migration. We use a flowline ice stream model with an undrained plastic bed, lateral shear stresses, and a stretched grid refined in the grounding zone. This model exhibits parameter space structure and hysteresis behavior similar to simpler ice stream models. Low prescribed temperature at the ice surface or weak geothermal heating produces thermal oscillations between active and stagnant phases. As in previous spatially resolved ice flow models, thermal activation propagates as an "activation wave." This model's fine resolution of the grounding zone allows for accurate simulations of transient, unforced grounding line migration. Upstream of the grounding zone, horizontal grid spacing of 1 km is required to accurately resolve activation waves. Activation waves induce the grounding line to migrate over 100 km at a rate that can exceed 1 km/yr. This is followed during the active phase by retreat, which then continues for the duration of the stagnant phase. Grounding line retreat is the result of a negative mass balance near the grounding line but is not necessarily associated with negative mass balance for the entire ice stream in our simulations of internal variability. The novel approach and experiments described in this study show that there can be large excursions in grounding line position in the absence of either external forcing or retrograde slopes.