Building on and Challenging Students' Intuitions About Probability: Can We Improve Undergraduate Learning?

Abstract

Students of statistics must be allowed to experience the omnipresence of variation and experience the dual modes of thinking probabilistically and deterministically to explain that variation. A pilot study to investigate the understanding of variability and probability of a small group of students is described. These students have a strong tendency to think deterministically (especially in real world settings); they have little understanding of variability and its relationship to sample size; and they are generally unable to reconcile their intuitions with the formal probability they have been taught. There were some initial indications that allowing students to experience variation personally made them more aware of their overemphasis on causal explanations of variability. Lastly, it appears that students' awareness about probabilistic thinking can be raised by actively challenging and discussing their tacit intuitive models about chance.