Currently active regions of decelerating-accelerating seismic strain in central Asia

Abstract

Accelerating preshock seismic strain in a broad (critical) region and decelerating preshock seismic strain in a narrower (seismogenic) region constitute a model for intermediate-term prediction of strong main shocks. An effort is made in the present work for a forward test of the Decelerating-Accelerating Seismic Strain (D-AS) model by identifying such patterns and estimating the corresponding, probably ensuing, strong main shocks (M ≥ 7.0) in central Asia (20°N-45°N, 42°E-105°E). Five such patterns have been identified, and the origin time, magnitude, and epicentral geographic coordinates of each of the corresponding main shocks have been estimated (predicted). Model uncertainties of the estimated time, magnitude, and space parameters of these probably ensuing main shocks, as well as appropriate statistical tests against a standard Gutenberg-Richter seismicity distribution, are also presented to allow a future objective evaluation of the model's efficiency for intermediate-term earthquake prediction. Copyright 2007 by the American Geophysical Union.