Risk assessment in acute pancreatitis

Abstract

Background: Acute pancreatitis has a variable natural history and in a proportion of patients is associated with severe complications and a significant risk of death. The various tools available for risk assessment in acute pancreatitis are reviewed. Methods: Relevant medical literature from PubMed, Ovid, Embase, Web of Science and The Cochrane Library websites to May 2008 was reviewed. Results and conclusion: Over the past 30 years several scoring systems have been developed to predict the severity of acute pancreatitis in the first 48-72 h. Biochemical and immunological markers, imaging modalities and novel predictive models may help identify patients at high risk of complications or death. Recently, there has been a recognition of the importance of the systemic inflammatory response syndrome and organ dysfunction. Copyright © 2009 British Journal of Surgery Society Ltd.