Backlash to fossil fuel phase-outs: the case of coal mining in US presidential elections

Abstract

Phasing out coal is a crucial lever in reaching international climate targets. However, the resulting jobs losses might trigger voter backlash, making phase-outs politically costly. Here, we present an analysis of the electoral response to coal mining job losses in US presidential elections using matched and bordering difference-in-difference estimators. Our findings confirm that fossil fuel phase-outs can result in voter backlash. In our main specification, we find a four percentage-point (pp) increase in the Republican vote share in 2012 (range across specs. = 3.6 pp-4.5 pp), declining to 3.2 pp in 2016 (range across specs. = 3.2 pp-4.2 pp), in counties suffering from coal mining job loss. The estimated electoral response is around three times as large as the number of jobs lost. We observe this response only in places where there was significant job loss, where these jobs accounted for a large share of locally available jobs and where income levels were low. Relative party strengths do not influence the results.