Predicting hoax spread in Indonesia using SIRS model

Abstract

Hoax or fake news can spread easily through the internet like an epidemic. In Indonesia, hoaxes are common that it becomes a serious problem. We predicted the spread of hoaxes in Indonesia by using the Susceptible-Infected-Recovered-Susceptible (SIRS) epidemic model where the susceptible is the person who ignores the news, the infected is the person who shares the news without fact-checking it, and the recovered is the person who fact-checks the news. This paper uses data from the Indonesia Telematics Society (MASTEL) concerning the behavior of Indonesian people in 2017 and 2019 when receiving trending news. We also use data on the number of internet users in Indonesia obtained from the Indonesia Internet Service Providers Association (APJII). This model has a disease-free equilibrium which is unstable and an endemic equilibrium which is asymptotically stable. The basic reproduction number of this model, which is 5.614455426, shows that the spread of hoaxes in Indonesia will increase because the behavior of sharing the news without fact-checking it will spread in the society until it reaches endemic equilibrium.