Estimating historical wage profiles

Abstract

In this article, researchers evaluate the empirical performance of the Mincer earnings equation, which has been the benchmark model for assessment of wage profiles since 1974. The analysis concerns workers in the manufacturing industry in three countries before 1900. The Mincer equation must be adjusted with respect to functional form in order to capture the wage profiles of past industrial workers. The quadratic spline consistently provides the best fit, while the standard quadratic produces misleading estimates of wage changes and gender wage gaps. These conclusions hold across contexts, for men and women, and for both age and experience profiles. The results have methodological relevance for estimating historical wage profiles and also have implications for the assessment of gender wage gaps in the past.