Do Canadian Medical Licensing Exam Scores Correlate with Physicians’ Future Performance in Practice? A Cohort Study of Alberta Family Physicians

Abstract

Background: Medical licensing examinations are cornerstones that uphold a standardized level of competence among practicing physicians. There are voices that contend the validity of such examinations as accurate measures of physician competency, viewing them as barriers to practice. Research into the predictive efficacy of licensing exams in Canada is still nascent. We attempt to remedy this. Methods: We conducted a historical cohort study of potential factors, including licensing examinations, which might correlate with complaints against family physicians in Alberta using Medical Council of Canada (MCC) and College of Physicians and Surgeons of Alberta (CPSA) data. Logistic regression was used to identify factors associated with non-dismissed complaints (NDCs). Results: The analyses indicated there are eight NDC predictors, among them the MCC Qualifying Examination (MCCQE) Part I. The regression model was statistically significant, X2 (8, N-539) = 54.23, P<0.0001. In our study, a decrease of one point on the total score on the first attempt is associated with a 0.6% increase in the odds of the physician having an NDC. Conclusion: The higher the score received on the first MCCQE Part I attempt, the lesser the probability of NDCs in family physicians’ future practice. Our research provides compelling evidence that licensing examinations effectively gauge and predict physician performance, serving as a vital public safeguard.