Impact of population on carbon emission: lessons from India

Abstract

The global population is more than seven billion and will likely reach nine billion by 2050. As India is home to 18 per cent of the world's population, but has only 2.4 per cent of the land area, a great deal of pressure is being placed on all of the country's natural resources. The increasing population has been trending towards an alarming situation; the United Nations has estimated that the country's population will increase to 1.8 billion by the 2050 and, by 2028, it will overtake China as the world's most populous country. The growing population and the environmental deterioration are becoming major impediments in the country's drive to achieve sustained development in the country. In this backdrop, the present study develops an econometric model to explain the causal relationship between carbon dioxide (CO2) emission and population, given the population structure, industrial structure and economic growth in India. Based on this modelling exercise, the paper estimates the energy consumption and generation of CO2 emission in 2050. The study projects that the total CO2 emission in India will be 3.5 million metric tons in 2050.