Modelling the effects of social distancing, antiviral therapy, and booster shots on mitigating Omicron spread

Abstract

As the COVID-19 situation changes because of emerging variants and updated vaccines, an elaborate mathematical model is essential in crafting proactive and effective control strategies. We propose a COVID-19 mathematical model considering variants, booster shots, waning, and antiviral drugs. We quantify the effects of social distancing in the Republic of Korea by estimating the reduction in transmission induced by government policies from February 26, 2021 to February 3, 2022. Simulations show that the next epidemic peak can be estimated by investigating the effects of waning immunity. This research emphasizes that booster vaccination should be administered right before the next epidemic wave, which follows the increasing waned population. Policymakers are recommended to monitor the waning population immunity using mathematical models or other predictive methods. Moreover, our simulations considering a new variant’s transmissibility, severity, and vaccine evasion suggest intervention measures that can reduce the severity of COVID-19.