A Study on Regional Financial Risks Based on CoCVaR Model

Abstract

For the purpose of accurate measurement of regional systemic financial risks and prevention of regional economic turmoil, this paper proposes a new measure called the CoCVaR model, based on the tail mean loss, which is applied to measure the impact of stock returns of each listed company on the overall stock returns in Guangdong Province, China, from January 2010 to December 2020. It is found that there are significant CoVaR and CoCVaR for real estate, finance, utilities, and energy companies, while the risk spillover to the real economy market in Guangdong Province is more significant when companies in these industries are in extreme situations. There are insignificant CoCVaR for daily consumption, information technology, and health care. The risk spillover to the real economy market in Guangdong Province is smaller when companies in these industries are in crisis.