Geospatial assessment of United States tropical cyclone disaster risk

Abstract

This study provides an overview of tropical cyclone (TC) hazard risk, population exposure, societal vulnerability, and community resilience for conterminous United States (CONUS) counties. TC hazard and disaster indices developed in this work combine measures of hazard risk (TCHR), exposure (TCEXP), vulnerability (TCVUL), resilience (TCRES), and disaster risk (TCDR) to determine the counties that are most likely to experience TC hazard impacts and suffer from a disaster. Results from this research indicate that counties in Florida, Louisiana, North Carolina, and southeastern Texas are most prone to TC disasters. Harris and Cameron, TX Counties rank highest of all counties in terms of TC disaster risk. Whereas TC disaster potential is largely greater for Atlantic and Gulf Coast counties because of a combination of high TC hazard incidence and population exposure, many inland or non-coastal counties across the southeastern and northeastern CONUS are also highly disaster prone due to frequent inland flash flooding from landfalling TCs intersecting vulnerable communities. Geospatial patterns in TC hazards and fatalities in relation to the underlying population exposure, vulnerability, and resilience are critical for understanding how the next TC disaster may unfold. In all, outcomes from this research are aimed at improving local, state, and federal stakeholder (e.g., emergency managers, policymakers, land use planners) knowledge about the various threats their communities face from TCs. Our findings may assist officials with developing TC hazard-specific mitigation and resilience-building strategies with the ultimate goal of reducing casualties and losses from future TCs.