Predicting solar irradiance using time series neural networks

Abstract

Increasing the accuracy of prediction improves the performance of photovoltaic systems and alleviates the effects of intermittence on the systems stability. A Nonlinear Autoregressive Network with Exogenous Inputs (NARX) approach was applied to the Vichy-Rolla National Airport's photovoltaic station. The proposed model uses several inputs (e.g. time, day of the year, sky cover, pressure, and wind speed) to predict hourly solar irradiance. Data obtained from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) was used to conduct simulation experiments. These simulations validate the use of the proposed model for short-term predictions. Results show that the NARX neural network notably outperformed the other models and is better than the linear regression model. The use of additional meteorological variables, particularly sky cover, can further improve the prediction performance.