Two millennia of sea level data: The key to predicting change

Abstract

Sea level reconstructions spanning the late Holocene (the past 2000 years) provide a preindustrial context for understanding the patterns and causes of contemporary and future change. The Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assumed that global sea level change during the past two millennia (prior to the middle of the nineteenth century) was close to zero [Bindoff et al., 2007], but understanding of late Holocene sea level variability is limited. Glaciers and ice sheets changed significantly in size during this period, and therefore sea level likely oscillated on the order of several decimeters. In addition, ocean dynamics, solid Earth movements, steric (density) changes, and gravitational effects contributed to complex regional patterns of sea level change.