Prospects for decadal prediction of the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO)

Abstract

For certain, but realizable, states of the thermohaline and wind driven circulation of the North Atlantic Ocean, we demonstrate the possibility of making statements regarding the likely range of values to be taken by the annual average of the NAO-index on time scales out to a decade. Given that the North Atlantic is currently in such a predictable state, a simple surrogate model yields a prediction that the NAO index is more likely to be positive than negative for the next couple of years, followed by several years in which the NAO index is more likely to be negative.