Linear and nonlinear post-processing of numerically forecasted surface temperature

Abstract

Abstract. In this paper we test different approaches to the statistical post-processing of gridded numerical surface air temperatures (provided by the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts) onto the temperature measured at surface weather stations located in the Italian region of Puglia. We consider simple post-processing techniques, like correction for altitude, linear regression from different input parameters and Kalman filtering, as well as a neural network training procedure, stabilised (i.e. driven into the absolute minimum of the error function over the learning set) by means of a Simulated Annealing method. A comparative analysis of the results shows that the performance with neural networks is the best. It is encouraging for systematic use in meteorological forecast-analysis service operations.