Modeling the Direction and Volume of Trade Flows in Global Crisis, COVID-19

Abstract

The massive spread of COVID-19 has disrupted trading activities worldwide plunging the economy of a nation; particularly, trade-dependent nations are severely affected by the restriction in exports and imports. This paper aims to evaluate the implications of COVID-19 on the trade economy of New Zealand by exploratory data analysis and ARIMA modeling. Based on a comprehensive strategy of analysis and prediction, data were processed to notice the impact of the pandemic on trade sales. ARIMA (Auto-Regressive Integrated Moving Average) model was implemented to assess and determine the total imports and exports value of New Zealand. The efficacy of the results was tested by employing standard error analytical techniques. Analysis of the results demonstrated that the trade economy of New Zealand shows plunge with the rise of pandemic and is likely to decline in future. On the basis, it is recommended that allowing trade for essential goods as a key factor in balancing the economy of trade in New Zealand. Future scope of the research is focused to identify other factors that could stimulate the economy of New Zealand during the pandemic.