Assessment of the impacts of climate change on power systems: The Italian case study

Abstract

Climate change due to the greenhouse effect will affect meteorological variables, which in turn will affect the demand for electrical energy and its generation in coming years. These impacts will become increasingly important in accordance with the increasing penetration of renewable, non-programmable energy sources (e.g., wind and solar). Specifically, the speed and amplitude of power system transformation will be different from one country to another according to many endogenous and exogenous factors. Based on a literature review, this paper focuses on the impact of climate change on the current, and future, Italian power system. The paper shows a wide range of results, due not just to the adopted climate change models used, but also to the models used to assess the impact of meteorological variables on electricity generation and demand. Analyzing and interpreting the reasons for such differences in the model results is crucial to perform more detailed numerical analyses on the adequacy and reliability of power systems. Concerning Italian future scenarios, the double impact of uncertainties in national policies and changes in power plant productivity and demand, has been considered and addressed.