System Dynamics Modeling for Demographic Bonus Projection in Indonesia

Abstract

Statistics Indonesia has released the result of the 2020 census. The outcome of the 2020 census is principal as it becomes the basic data for the latest projection of Indonesia's population. This research about the population projection using system dynamic is conducted to know the population proportion and demographic bonus. The researchers use system dynamics modeling to project Indonesia's demographic bonus. This modeling is conducted by projecting Indonesia's population based on three age groups: young (0-14 years old), adult (15-39 years old), middle-aged (40-64 years old), and old (65+ years old). The projection using system dynamics modeling shows that in 2025, we have a better result than the previous year. In 2025, it is predicted that the working-age population has the highest percentage, which is 69.38%, and the dependency ratio will be at its lowest percentage, which is 44.13%. Therefore, the peak of demographic bonus is projected to happen in 2025.